Overcoming Regional Childcare Challenges in Elizabethtown, KY

Lincoln Trail Area Development District

The Lincoln Trail Area Development District (LTADD) is a public agency that includes the eight central Kentucky counties of Breckinridge, Grayson, Hardin, LaRue, Marion, Meade, Nelson and Washington.

Developing economical, socially acceptable solutions to difficult community problems—coupled with willingness and ability to employ innovative approaches has been the trademark of LTADD since its designation in 1972.

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Discovering the Economic Impact of Lack of Childcare

Like many areas in the United States, west-central Kentucky has experienced a lack of affordable and available childcare for working parents. In 2022, LTADD engaged TPMA to estimate the impact that lack of childcare has on the workforce and economy in its eight-county region.

TPMA utilized our custom methodology to:

estimate the number of parents who would go back to work if adequate childcare and early learning options were available

estimate the impact on tax revenue, Gross Regional Product and employee earnings

The methodology was developed keeping in mind that estimates would inform employers, key partners, elected officials, and decision makers on the true economic impact that lack of childcare has on the regional economy. With construction in progress for a $5.6 billion battery and vehicle manufacturing campus in Glendale as well other critical economic development projects, the timing was perfect for regional workforce planning efforts.

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Economic Impact By the Numbers

TPMA estimated there are currently 2,035 Work Willing parents in the eight counties that make up the LTADD. Collectively, should they return to the workforce full-time, we estimated they would earn between $99.2 million and $126.3 million annually. These earnings would be spent mainly within the region, fueling the purchase of homes, supporting local businesses, and creating additional jobs, earnings, and opportunities for employers and residents of the region.

Payroll taxes associated with the earnings of those 2,035 parents would generate between $863,000 and $1.09 million annually for local governments and between $4.5 and $5.7 million in additional state income tax revenue for Kentucky.

Additionally, based on the output of the full-time work conducted by these 2,035 Work Willing parents, we estimated the region stands to generate additional Gross Regional Product (GRP) of between $164.5 and 230.6 million. This GRP could result in additional revenue for local, state, and federal governments in property, sales, and import taxes, estimated to range between $14.6 and $24.8 annually.

Outcomes and Next Steps

After analyzing the economic impact, TPMA developed multi-faceted, actionable recommendations for next steps.

In May 2024, Lincoln Trail Area Development District shared its results with local stakeholders and launched a childcare taskforce that includes industry leaders, government officials and community advocates.

The taskforce is charged with paving the way forward in west-central Kentucky and has prioritized increasing affordable childcare capacity by 3% annually—ammounting to 4,000 new childcare seats by 2033.