With a shrinking pool of prospective students, higher education institutions must work harder than ever to maintain or grow enrollment. Meanwhile, the American public continues to lose trust in higher education—an area that’s become increasingly politicized. Student expectations are changing, and while colleges try to adapt, they’re also navigating the implications of artificial intelligence and battling a campus mental health crisis.
Approaching a Cliff
The enrollment cliff, a demographic shift that describes the shrinking population of high school graduates—and therefore traditional college-aged students—over the next several years, has higher education institutions working harder than ever to compete for students. Many colleges are already struggling to combat declining enrollment, an issue that will only worsen as we approach 2025, which marks the beginning of the predicted five- to ten-year decrease of the college-bound population. The cliff is predicted to hit Midwestern and Northeastern states particularly hard.
Admissions professionals are well versed in the enrollment funnel, a representation of the pool of potential students as it narrows from prospective students to inquiries, to completed applications, accepted applications, and finally, to enrolled students. While each institution has its own application, acceptance, and enrollment conversion rates, accepted wisdom in higher education says that to increase the smallest portion of the funnel, the institution must start by growing the larger sections. Through advertising, purchasing lists of names from standardized tests, or more unique strategies, institutions try to expand their pools of prospective students, in turn, to increase the number of inquiries, applications, accepted students, and matriculants.
The demographic cliff is shrinking the top of every American higher education institution’s enrollment funnel. There are simply fewer high school graduates in our population. As a result, colleges and universities must work harder to catch the interest of a dwindling number of available prospective students.
Enduring a Political Storm
To call the American political landscape fraught is an understatement, and higher education is certainly among the topics about which we hear divisive rhetoric, from threats to dismantle the Department of Education to promises of student loan debt forgiveness. Not only do elected officials affect the laws and regulations that shape education, they also influence the public conversation about the value of higher education. Education has become politicized—or, if it has always been political, it now faces an increasingly divisive, volatile landscape.
Colleges spend resources to comply with new rules only to be forced to quickly reverse or update their policies based on a court ruling or new administration, a symptom Inside Higher Ed calls “regulatory whiplash.” It’s happened lately with gainful employment, Title IX, and DEI initiatives.
While institutions struggle to keep up with changing regulations, they find themselves under ideological attack, with major political figures going so far as to call them “the enemy.” While we do know that faith in higher education is closely linked to an individual’s political affiliation, it’s hard to say how much damage this rhetoric will cause the long run.
Combatting Loss of Confidence
Given the political discourse around higher education, it’s not surprising that overall public confidence in higher education is declining. Former student loan borrowers struggling to make ends meet question whether their investment in college was worthwhile, while high school graduates wonder if pursuing a college degree is worth the time and money. Part of this loss of confidence—and the key to rebuilding it—relates to what students expect from higher education institutions. Today’s students want to know the outcomes they can expect from investing in a college degree. In what ways is a four-year degree preferable to a shorter, more affordable credential that relates directly to a job?
Adapting to AI
For many educators, artificial intelligence represents a threat. Is students’ work their own, or did ChatGPT generate it? Did research come from a reputable source or a web search result in which AI simply summarized untrustworthy content? When the answers to nearly every conceivable question are a click away, will students still understand the value of learning to think critically?
Others see AI’s potential to make institutions more efficient and prepare students for future careers. If employers want workers who can successfully use and collaborate with AI—and they do—isn’t higher education’s responsibility to provide that learning to students, especially given the need for higher education to adapt to the public’s changing expectations? Some experts believe that as AI becomes more mainstream, employers will seek out employees with liberal arts backgrounds who have the critical thinking skills to conceptualize AI’s weaknesses and unintended consequences. In this surprising way, AI could potentially revitalize the importance of the liberal arts.
Experts also wonder whether AI could bring much-needed equity to higher education.* Higher education leaders seek new ways to capitalize on the AI trend by creating new academic programs or incorporating AI into their existing programs. Whether institutions fear or embrace AI, it is already impacting college employees, with many faculty, administration and staff reporting new AI-related responsibilities have been added to their current job duties. As higher education works to make sense of its relationship with AI, institutions may also need to combat burnout among employees with increased workloads and uncertain futures.
Focusing on Mental Health
According to the American Council on Education, nearly half of college students have symptoms of anxiety or depression, and more than half report that they’ve needed help in handling their emotional and mental difficulties. The rate of students struggling with mental health has increased over the past several years, and at the same time, student expectations about who should help with these issues have changed, with many students saying their professors, advisors, staff and administrators, and even their fellow students are responsible for mental health on campus. Meanwhile, university faculty and staff are similarly struggling with stress, depression, and anxiety.
Institutions try to combat the mental health crisis by expanding their counseling centers, but hiring additional counselors is not enough to keep up with the demand (and studies show that many students are unlikely to use these resources anyway).* Some institutions have created peer counseling programs to address both the growing need for student support and students’ preference to speak with their peers.
A Look at International Students
International student enrollment represents an area of hope for American higher education. Though the pandemic temporarily reduced the number of students traveling to the US for college, that number has since rebounded, with the 2022-2023 academic year seeing more than a million international students enrolling in the US, according to a 2023 Open Doors® Report. This made up 5.6% of our total college enrollment.
Though the US saw a few thousand more international students between 2016 and 2019, the most recent figure represents a higher proportion of total college enrollment—once again pointing back to declining enrollment for higher education in general. For many colleges looking to maintain or increase their student bodies, international students could represent a lifeline—if colleges can provide the resources to help international students feel at home.
Higher education institutions will need to invest in expanding the programs and resources they offer to help their growing international student populations acclimate and succeed. Hiring additional advisors to process required immigration paperwork and help students navigate their arrival and early transition would be a start.
Before the pandemic, most of our international students were undergraduates, often from China. Now, most are from India and studying in graduate programs. These students may have already been in the workforce and tend to be more career-focused than undergraduate students. Graduate schools hoping to attract international students should offer robust career services offices and programs to match the expectations of current and future students.
Where Do We Go from Here?
Many of these issues work in conjunction to put higher education institutions in a precarious position. They need to work quickly to adapt, but how?
While the demographic cliff can’t necessarily be solved, institutions can mitigate the effects of a declining traditional population by appealing to broader populations. Community colleges and career-focused institutions already excel at attracting adult students,* but traditional colleges should consider adding features to appeal to non-traditional students. Increasing online, evening, and weekend programming, partnering with local employers, and perhaps even offering childcare services while adult students take classes could be good starts.
Further, higher education needs to consider how America’s divisive political climate could affect international students and whether it is willing to stand up for them. Are universities using their voices to welcome international students and support diversity and inclusion on campuses, even when politicians vilify immigration as part of their platforms?
Strengthening public confidence in higher education could require schools to revamp their communication plans to show prospective students how these issues are already being addressed. For many schools though, it could call for a larger transformation of the institution’s goals to ensure they align with student needs and workforce demands. Addressing issues such as AI and the mental health crisis requires open communication between college leadership and students, employees, and community members.
To learn more about TPMA’s workforce and education services, contact author Allison Digilio, Business Development Coordinator, at adigilio@tpma-inc.com.